ERCOT expects sufficient electricity for upcoming winter, spring
Unusually severe conditions could result in tight reserves, conservation requests
“We have more generation resources available than
we did this time last year,” said Warren Lasher, director of System
Planning for ERCOT. “Although some areas could experience
colder-than-normal temperatures this winter, we are not expecting
peak demand to be as high as we saw this past winter.”
Generation resources for this winter in the ERCOT
region total more than 77,350 megawatts (MW). The forecast, based on
12-year average winter temperatures, projects peak demand at about
53,000 MW. One MW is enough electricity to serve about
200-500 homes, depending on weather conditions.
Under the full range of planning scenarios,
available ERCOT reserves during this winter’s peak could range from more
than 16,000 MW to less than 1,200 MW, with the latter representing a
worst-case scenario of very high demand, extensive
generation outages, and fuel supply limitations that would further
reduce generation capacity. In that scenario, peak demand could exceed
59,640 MW, more than 2,000 MW higher than the 57,265-MW winter record
set in February 2011.
“In recent years, generation providers in the ERCOT
region have improved their procedures to prepare their facilities for
extreme winter conditions,” said Ken McIntyre, vice president, Grid
Planning and Operations. “We continue to monitor
these efforts to help assess the preparedness of the system overall.”
In addition to new resources that began operations
in 2014, the increase in generation capacity also reflects a change in
the percentage of installed wind capacity that ERCOT expects to be
available during peak demand periods. A
new methodology, approved by the ERCOT Board of Directors on Oct.
14, enables ERCOT to project wind generation availability based on
location (Coastal or non-Coastal) and historical performance during
seasonal peaks. The winter SARA includes Coastal wind
generation at 36 percent of installed capacity and non-Coastal at 19
percent, bringing the expected Peak Average Wind Capacity Contribution
to nearly 2,500 MW.
Based on input from generation owners, ERCOT does
not expect drought conditions or coal transportation issues to affect
generation availability during periods of peak demand this winter. To
date, ERCOT also has not received reports from
generation owners of expected capacity changes associated with U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency’s potential implementation of the
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, which could be in place in January 2015.
Although generation owners likely will wait for additional
guidance from the EPA, ERCOT believes it is reasonable to expect some
coal-fired units to reduce operations to comply with the new rule and
will continue to monitor these developments.
ERCOT today also released a
preliminary SARA for spring 2015, which currently projects adequate
resources to meet expected demand. The final spring assessment is
scheduled for release Feb. 27, 2015. ERCOT also plans to release its
next Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, with an
updated 10-year outlook, on Dec. 1.
###
The Electric
Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the flow of electric power
to nearly 24 million Texas customers — representing about 90 percent of
the state's electric load. As the independent
system operator for the region, ERCOT schedules power on an electric
grid that connects more than 43,000 miles of transmission lines and 550
generation units. ERCOT also performs financial settlement for the
competitive wholesale bulk-power market and administers
retail switching for 6.7 million premises in competitive choice areas.
ERCOT is a membership-based 501(c)(4) nonprofit corporation, governed by
a board of directors and subject to oversight by the Public Utility
Commission of Texas and the Texas Legislature.
Media Contact: Robbie Searcy, (512) 225-7213
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